Blockbuster Nadal-Federer Aussie semi set

Tennis Betting Lines

01/24/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former world No. 1 greats Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will do battle in the semifinals Thursday at the 2012 Australian Open.

The second-seeded Nadal snuck past seventh-seeded Czech Tomas Berdych in four sets, while a third-seeded Federer whipped 11th-seeded Argentine slugger Juan Martin del Potro in straights in a rematch of the 2009 U.S. Open final, which was won by the towering del Potro. Nadal beat Berdych in the 2010 Wimbledon championship match.

The 30-year-old Federer played in his 1,000th ATP-level match on Tuesday and secured a berth in his 30th Grand Slam semifinal.

"It's a lot of matches and a lot tennis," Federer said. "Either I have been around for a long time or I'm extremely fit. You decide which way you want to describe it. But I'm happy."

The 10-time major champion and reigning French Open titlist Nadal was tested mightily in a 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (8-6), 6-4, 6-3 victory over Berdych at Rod Laver Arena, where the legendary Aussie Laver was on hand to watch on Day 9. The 16- time Grand Slam titlist Federer dismantled del Potro 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 earlier Tuesday in quarterfinal action at Laver.

Nadal needed a whopping 4 hours, 16 minutes to stave off a game Berdych, who finally succumbed on Nadal's first match point by framing one final forehand into the court, as the mighty Spaniard broke to close out the quality affair.

The fiery Nadal saved four set points in the opening stanza, including one with an incredible cross-court passing shot on the 29th point of a rally. But Berdych would win the ensuing tiebreak.

Nadal then snuck out the second-set tiebreak on his way to taking the last three sets of the match, as he simply got stronger at the bout wore one.

"Happy with how I finished match physically, I was able to keep running with high intensity," Nadal said.

Berdych fired 17 aces, but also piled up 56 unforced errors and had his serve broken five times, compared to only two breaks he tallied against the Spanish strongman, who beat the big Czech for a 10th straight time.

The four-time Aussie Open champion Federer, meanwhile, handled del Potro in just 1 hour, 59 minutes, as the super Swiss recorded 38 winners to send the Argentine home after he reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal since the '09 U.S. Open.

"We have played some big matches against each other, so just knowing how well he's been playing as of late, I was just hoping that I would get off a good start," Federer said. "I was able to mix it up well and control the ball, and right away sort of felt confident."

Federer, who hasn't won a Grand Slam event since titling here in Melbourne two years ago, has yet to drop a set at this latest Aussie fortnight. He'll now appear in his ninth straight Aussie semi.

The 25-year-old Nadal and Federer will meet for a 27th time, with the Spaniard leading the all-time series 17-9. Nadal is 7-2 in their Grand Slam meetings, including wins in their last four matchups. The two stalwarts have met in a record eight major finals, with Nadal winning six of them. They are in the same half of the draw at a major for the first time since 2005.

Nadal topped Federer in five sets in the 2009 Aussie Open finale.

The other quarterfinals will be staged on Wednesday, as current world No. 1 Novak Djokovic will face fifth-seeded Spaniard David Ferrer and fourth-seeded Andy Murray will take on 24th-seeded Japanese Kei Nishikori.

Djokovic is 6-5 lifetime against Ferrer, who titled in Auckland two weeks ago and is already a perfect 8-0 this season.

The high-flying Djokovic beat Murray in last year's Aussie final to capture his second title here in four years. The four-time major champion is also the reigning Wimbledon and U.S. Open titlist.

Djokovic has won 36 of his last 38 Grand Slam matches and is seeking a third straight major title. A title this week would put him in select company, as only four players -- Laver, Pete Sampras, Federer and Nadal -- have captured three straight Grand Slam championships in the Open Era (since 1968).

Murray, who titled in Brisbane three weeks ago, is a three-time major runner- up, including a loss to Federer in the 2010 Aussie Open finale.

Nishikori is the first Japanese man to reach the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam event since Shuzo Matsuoka in 1995 (Wimbledon) and he's also the first Japanese man in 80 years to advance to the Aussie Open quarters, since Ryosuki Nunoi and Jiro Satoh turned the trick way back in 1932.

Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have combined to win seven of the last eight Aussie Open titles.

Ccaisno Tennis Betting News

<< Knicks hope to turn it around in Charlotte
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks have to get their act together before this season spirals out of control even further. Mired in a season-high six-game losing streak, the Knicks start a four-game road trip tonight against the

<< Red-hot Pacers welcome Magic to Indy
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Plenty of teams have struggled this season because of the NBA lockout but the Indiana Pacers are not one of them. The surprising Central Division inhabitants are 11-4 and off to the best start after 15 games since the

<< Heat, Cavs set for showdown in south Florida
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat will finish a five-game homestand by welcoming the Cavaliers and the new face of their franchise, Kyrie Irving, to the shores of Biscayne Bay. Cleveland, of course, was the NBA home of superstar LeB

<< Grizzlies take win streak into Portland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Memphis Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins has been pushing all the right buttons lately to the tune of a seven-game winning streak. Hollins hopes to be on point at the controls once again when his team resumes

<< Golden Eagles set to collide with Bulls
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 17th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles are back at it tonight as they host the South Florida Bulls for a Big East Conference battle at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee. This will be the 20th meeting in the al

Maple Leafs aim for home-and-home sweep of Islanders >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to boost their postseason chances with a sweep of a home-and-home against the New York Islanders tonight at Nassau Coliseum. The Leafs have won two of three since a three-game slide and the

Rangers try to head into break with win over Jets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers posted a dramatic victory over their primary rival for the top seed in the East in their last game and the Atlantic Division leaders will try to enter the All-Star break on a positive note when they host

Capitals set to face tough Bruins without Ovechkin >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Ovechkin will be forced to watch tonight's action at the Verizon Center from the press box, as his Washington Capitals try to halt a two-game skid against the visiting Boston Bruins. Ovechkin will miss the next three

Lightning aim to notch season-high win streak vs. Blue Jackets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning will try to enter the All-Star break with their longest winning streak of the season, as they host the Columbus Blue Jackets tonight at Tampa Times Forum. After opening January on a seven-game slide

Panthers try to build momentum versus Flyers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers ended their longest losing streak of the season in their last trip to the ice and they'll attempt to close January on a high note when they host the Philadelphia Flyers tonight at BankAtlantic Center.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook that aims to keep betting fun. The company sees itself as a premier provider of a top-shelf gambling entertainment experience. MySportsbook knows that this can not be accomplished if gamblers are struggling through the betting process, so the emphasis is put on simplicity and ease of use.

Established in 1997, MySportsbook was the first sportsbook to offer the Instant eCheck method, and has since continued on to be one of the most innovate and fastest growing internet sportsbooks the industry has seen. A player doesn’t have to look very far before coming across one of the many sportsbooks that have cloned MySportsbook’s written policies, web pages and advertising campaign, hoping to bottle some of MySportsbook’s magic.

Although MySportsbook’s growth is largely attributed to their talented in-house marketing team, every successful bookmaker will agree that bringing the players in is only half of the battle. In a time when most internet sportsbook were nickel-and-diming players, MySportsbook was creating ways to make bonuses automatic and absent of fine print, while offering all payouts free of charge. This sportsbook also accepts Visa & Mastercard sportsbook.

Almost everything on the online sportsbook site is set in the model of simplicity, making the CS clerk’s job easy as well. Each account action made online results in an automated email sent to the client. When calling MySportsbook, the player feels as if his call is in the united states as no accents can be heard through a state of the art telecommunications system. Few online sportsbooks can compete with My Sportsbook when it comes to offering a fun and hassle-free experience to the small to moderate sized gambler.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs.